Sir Keir is proving that Labour musn’t wobble — leaps are not what is needed to win
Sir Keir is on almost a victory lap right now despite hitting just a few polls which are either tied or marginally ahead. Why?
First, the commentariat and the Westminster Bubble had convinced themselves Sir Keir was a loser. As I said before, this was because they were bored of him and Labour’s slow road to victory.
The bump in the polls provide an excuse for a “resetting the narrative” perspective from SW1 and, indeed, Labour.
Secondly, and perhaps more interestingly, the same people in that bubble are slowly waking up to the challenge that will face Labour and the Tories in any future election (which Johnson chooses to fight).
Labour can win, and this is what these polls are suggesting (albeit the early indicators), and Johnson is not an all conquering hero.
Crucially, we are seeing Tory to Labour switchers beginning to appear.
This is down to three factors: first, Johnson has “crashed” the Tory car with regards cut-through issues (sewage, sleeze, trains, and now social care), secondly the vaccine bounce is waning (remember the last time we were at this stage in the polls Johnson’s vaccine “victory” had not occurred), and thirdly there is somewhere for these voters to go.
The Corbyn factor is still (and will be for decades I suspect) an anchor on the possibility of greater Tory-Labour switchers.
But Sir Keir has broken the shackles (or certainly loosened them) — his CBI speech was pitch perfect not because it contrasted so well with Johnsons’ (although it did, as the Times pointed out) but because of the subtle shift in the Brexit positioning.
Note it is the positioning that has changed not the policy.
The policy remains the same but for the first time Sir Keir’s Labour is speaking boldly about Brexit (previously they have been cowed by a fear of a) upsetting the Blue Wall Remainer vote — a nonsense as I have previously written — and b) giving a false impression to Leavers that Sir Keir is still a “Remainer Lawyer”).
Yes, we have seen the “Make Brexit Work” three-word-slogan appear and Sir Keir highlighted it at his speech this week. Not only is this business facing but it is also reassuring to Leavers (and infuriating to Tory strategists no doubt as it steals their clothing).
This is a sensible advancement for Labour as it needs to win back Labour-Tory switchers more desperately than regaining the seepage of Labour 2019 voters that have drifted to the Greens/Don’t Know.
So, all of this is of note. The Westminster Bubble are finally waking up to the fact Johnson is no Thatcher-in-her-prime. This is a man that can lose, and quite quickly too (particularly if we get any extension in the torturous weeks we’ve had of late). And the Westminster Discourse is reflected in genuine poll shifts to Labour’s favour.
There is a long way to go. Johnson still regularly bests Sir Keir as Best PM, and Dishi Rishi could easily still help the Tories to a fifth consecutive election victory (and probably their second consecutive landslide).
But there is hope for Labour in these polls. First, it means Labour can push ahead without a prerequisite Dominic Cummings’ eye tests, although it remains clear that if crisis-mode returns as the nation’s zeitgeist bumbling, pathetic, and not-funny-anymore Johnson will lose further ground to Sir Keir’s SPD-styled performance (which has now resulted in the ousting of the CDU for the first time in 16 years).
Secondly, the polls show Labour can talk about things other than the vague (the “cost of living crisis” or “climate change”) and go for the jugular on particular policy failings of the Government (including Brexit!).
Yet we did not get here through leaps. Sir Keir has not abandoned the core values that he was elected on (and I refer here to the 2015 Miliband manifesto, the 2017 and 2019 manifesto of Corbyn, and Sir Keir’s own platform in 2020).
Nor is it likely that “leaps, leaps, leaps” will work. We are no longer in a Leninist frame of mind (although the party discipline certainly is closer to Lenin under Sir Keir than anything under Corbyn).
Voters change their mind slowly because voting is a huge and momentous decision for many people (depressingly it can still be literally a life and death/almost decision for many) and a change of tone, and a few knockout PMQs isn’t going to solve long-standing problems.
Sir Keir knows that he owes it to the nation to demonstrate that he has come to change Labour in a considered way which is not just window dressing.
Labour must first be trusted they believe in the nation they want to lead. Sir Keir oozes this with ease.
It must prove it can be trusted to keep to its word on issues voters believe settled. It has done this by its cautious reintroduction of Brexit discourse.
And it must be trusted on the economy before it tinkers on the edges of people’s own lives (let alone billions for the green economy). This remains to be seen. But it won’t be done with a splashy commitment or a few speeches.
Slow and steady not “breaks with gradualness” can be the only way Labour tick off these boxes and begin to win back Labour-Tory switchers.
