Three things we learned from Sir Keir’s “first” conference
Sir Keir Starmer won more than just a few simple rule changes. The future will be very different.
The rule changes, Rayner’s comments about “scum” (my view on Rayner politically is known), and Andy McDonald’s resignation have all dominated Conference 2021.
Sir Keir’s first “real” conference is, however, marks the beginning of Starmer’s march to Number 10.
Here’s three things we’ve learned from Conference 2021:
Starmer’s vision for the nation is solid
The Road Ahead by Sir Keir can, as has been said, be summed up as “Security for All.”
Using tropes of familiarity and tranquility, Sir Keir’s vision is radical. But the Left found fault with it (because, of course it did).
Despite calling for such a document to be written, they moaned it was too long. They said, despite supporting this man’s Conference efforts, it was too intellectually light.
Indeed, as was commented in the (depressingly) Right-wing Sunday Times: “The Labour movement… has drifted so far from the mainstream of public opinion that even the most basic truisms… become viciously partisan statements.”
Yet there was nothing for them to object to.
The “Corbynism with the brakes on” certainly fits when considering much of Sir Keir’s vision. It is the radicalism of progress with voter-friendly personalities leading the charge.
A winning strategy as seen this week in Germany.
What is so frustrating (not least the hypocrisy as highlighted by Ian Murray) about the debacle about the £10-v-£15 hourly minimum wage is that £10 (“at least”) is a huge jump anyway. Indeed, fantasy politics gets short thrift from the electorate because they know it can’t be delivered on. As 2019 shows.
But maybe that highlights the difference. One is a faction led by a strong leader who wants to change the world through winning elections and improving the lives of citizens.
The other is a someone who prefers to trail around the British south-coast looking for adoration and finding it amongst people who heckled victims of antisemitism on the stage, interrupted a minute’s silence to victims of VAWG, and lost us two successive elections.
Starmer’s control of the Party is solid
The Labour to Win rally on Brighton beach was such a contrast from 2019 that when speaking with senior figures within Labour to Win I could hardly believe what I was saying.
“2019 was just so so sad. Now look,” I said. And I was right — the Labour to Win rally was so busy it was one-in-one-out.
It was Carolyn Harris MP who proclaimed: “We’ve done it” when she read out the rule changes vote result. It felt like the Party had been saved — no more future Corbyns could occur ever again. It was 2015 (and 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019) but in reverse.
So, where does this leave Sir Keir and the Party?
Well for one thing it means that Corbyn would never have been on the ballot in 2015, it means that only Sir Keir (no RLB!) would have been able to run in 2019, and it means the 1/3 can never trump 2/3 of CLPs in triggering trigger ballots.
So, in short: MPs are no longer living in fear of their members (on a personal note, I rather enjoyed the speakers on the Conference floor who huffed that it was almost like the Party didn’t trust the members) and will never work for a person who they think is unfit to lead them.
As I have often remarked — the Lobby has not caught up with how dramatically the Party has changed under Starmer.
Indeed, buried in YouGov data it was revealed: “Despite Starmer being regarded as a more centrist figure, this doesn’t mean many Labour members are longing for the days of Corbyn. A majority (61%) say the current leader is doing considerably better (39%) or at least a little bit better (22%) than his predecessor, while one in ten (10%) say his performance is about the same.”
The Party is now controlled by Starmer and that means the Party can refocus on what it actually exists to do: win elections.
Starmer’s future is solid
The end of the Left’s control of the Party. The rise of the Moderates. The continuing chaotic trolley of the Tory Government.
How can Labour not be heartened? Its path to power is long, winding, and unlikely. But it’s a path that can be taken as opposed to cloud-cuckoo-land as it often felt in Conferences gone by.
Starmer is probably of the view that Oppositions don’t win elections, Governments lose them. Which is why he’ll not take personal compliments to heart when it was revealed he’d become the first Labour leader to poll equally with their Tory opposite number in 13 years.
Nevertheless, a win-is-a-win and the general disaster of 2021’s autumn (UC-uplift ending, NI increases, HGV shortages, gas hedging mess-ups by small players, a reshuffle that refocuses on culture wars rather than People’s Priorities) is already taking a hit on the Tories’ ratings.
So — next year in Liverpool. And no doubt with that path to power becoming ever more clear.
